Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA +215 UL -255 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | NOLA -9.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (-35.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -4.1 (-7.1) | 147.9 (-18.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -3.0 (-6.0) | 144.6 (-15.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -3.7 (-6.7) | 152.8 (-23.8) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2022 | UL 78 – 77 NOLA |
| Dec 4, 2021 | UL 80 – 67 NOLA |
| Dec 16, 2020 | UL 73 – 63 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#231) | -7.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#172) | -0.91 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#174) | -1.40 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#164) | 0.500 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 52.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 28.6% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.3% | 65.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 59.2% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 8.8% |
Game Analysis
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