Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -2000 SJSU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +41 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -18.6 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -16.6 (+24.4) | 139.8 (+17.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -17.6 (+23.4) | 138.3 (+18.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -14.5 (+26.5) | 141.5 (+15.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -15.2 (+25.8) | 142.3 (+14.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#39) | -2.3 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#32) | 0.76 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#28) | 0.64 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#40) | 0.501 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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