Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -800 FDU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +17 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -12.3 (-29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -8.5 (-25.5) | 155.1 (+21.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -10.5 (-27.5) | 153.2 (+23.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -9.1 (-26.1) | 157.9 (+19.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -8.8 (-25.8) | 157.4 (+19.6) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#237) | -9.3 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#249) | -2.16 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#269) | -3.53 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#215) | 0.330 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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