Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | IDHO +130 NIU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDHO +37 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | IDHO -3.0 (+34.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDHO -3.6 (+33.4) | 143.3 (-12.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDHO -1.8 (+35.2) | 140.4 (-9.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -2.6 (+34.4) | 144.3 (-13.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDHO -2.6 (+34.4) | 145.2 (-14.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-10 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#266) | -1.9 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#282) | -0.97 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#280) | -1.58 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.356 (#345) | 0.404 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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