Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -125 JXST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -5.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -2.7 (-4.7) | 139.0 (-15.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -3.1 (-5.1) | 142.0 (-18.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -3.7 (-5.7) | 142.4 (-18.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -4.0 (-6.0) | 143.2 (-19.2) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | JXST 81 – 75 ETSU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ETSU 61 – 59 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#261) | -4.4 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#336) | -1.83 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.84 (#333) | -2.93 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.378 (#335) | 0.440 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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