Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -550 JXST +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +6 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -19.7 (-25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -12.6 (-18.6) | 135.1 (+20.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -16.3 (-22.3) | 134.9 (+21.1) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -17.1 (-23.1) | 134.3 (+21.7) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -16.8 (-22.8) | 134.9 (+21.1) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2023 | ETSU 61 – 59 JXST |
| Dec 3, 2022 | JXST 63 – 61 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#98) | -9.5 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#148) | -2.61 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#143) | -3.17 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#138) | 0.338 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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