Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -350 BALL +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -8.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -8.7 (-7.7) | 143.9 (+11.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -6.6 (-5.6) | 141.9 (+13.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -8.6 (-7.6) | 146.0 (+9.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -8.0 (-7.0) | 147.0 (+8.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#140) | 0.4 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#82) | 0.18 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#98) | 0.59 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#116) | 0.501 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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