I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–12 on winners spread MAE 10.5 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Richmond @ William & Mary +2.0 137.2 54% 57–58 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield +3.4 130.3 67% 55–67 ✓
Norfolk State @ Old Dominion +10.3 143.4 83% 62–68 ✓
Boise State @ Texas A&M -2.1 136.2 40% 86–71 ✓
Ole Miss @ Memphis +7.6 134.9 75% 57–68 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri State +2.7 130.3 67% 58–40 ✗
Lindenwood @ Kansas City +6.3 137.8 70% 47–61 ✓
Southern Utah @ Idaho State +4.9 150.3 67% 69–59 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Pepperdine +13.6 150.1 87% 69–88 ✓
North Dakota @ Portland +12.4 144.5 86% 69–90 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +15.8 144.6 91% 61–74 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +17.6 154.0 89% 65–78 ✓
California Baptist @ Cal Poly +1.1 130.0 51% 53–64 ✓
Utah Tech @ Weber State -0.5 142.9 46% 77–65 ✓
Fresno State @ UC Irvine +16.8 133.0 88% 80–66 ✗
Wichita State @ Kansas State +9.1 137.2 81% 50–55 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Houston +7.2 122.7 78% 48–53 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego -1.3 142.2 38% 95–78 ✓
Nevada @ Loyola Marymount +1.1 145.7 50% 52–64 ✓
Maine @ Marist -5.2 129.4 27% 61–62 ✗
Bryant @ Cincinnati +3.6 155.6 61% 71–97 ✓
Michigan @ Kentucky +6.0 146.5 70% 69–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Cornell +10.0 137.5 82% 68–73 ✓
Miami @ Louisville -11.9 136.4 16% 80–53 ✓
Canisius @ Iona +13.3 146.2 88% 60–90 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State -3.7 155.6 37% 88–77 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso -1.6 138.7 45% 77–70 ✓
Belmont @ Illinois State -2.3 139.5 40% 77–87 ✗
Vermont @ Merrimack -4.1 131.8 31% 66–43 ✓
Georgia State @ Northeastern +2.7 134.2 56% 46–66 ✓
Samford @ UCF +6.7 138.3 74% 77–80 ✓
George Washington @ Radford +7.8 144.5 78% 76–86 ✓
South Alabama @ UAB +13.2 153.4 85% 68–76 ✓
Monmouth @ Manhattan +11.7 136.6 85% 76–69 ✗
Stetson @ Florida +6.7 153.2 73% 51–89 ✓
Brown @ Hartford -8.9 133.2 18% 65–51 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Eastern Michigan -8.9 147.1 18% 101–73 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech +2.5 149.5 61% 72–80 ✓
St. John's @ Iowa State +9.6 140.6 78% 60–71 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Chicago State -3.1 148.9 38% 61–78 ✗
Rice @ Texas State +10.2 143.6 84% 83–71 ✗
Niagara @ Quinnipiac +7.9 132.7 81% 64–60 ✗
Colorado @ Washington +0.1 140.9 54% 63–73 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Denver +4.1 141.5 67% 75–84 ✓
Utah @ Washington State +1.7 136.8 56% 67–65 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Missouri +14.1 151.5 88% 89–96 ✓
Nebraska @ Creighton +13.1 145.0 87% 63–53 ✗
Southern Miss @ Northwestern State -0.5 136.9 40% 82–84 ✗
California @ Arizona +17.1 146.7 90% 68–81 ✓
Minnesota @ Purdue +20.0 135.3 91% 70–89 ✓
Oregon @ UCLA +11.9 143.2 87% 56–65 ✓
Alcorn State @ Tennessee +18.5 131.1 90% 40–94 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Gulf Coast +16.1 148.5 88% 65–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.