Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -5000 SDST +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -21.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -18.1 (-5.1) | 152.5 (-9.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -15.4 (-2.4) | 155.4 (-12.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -17.6 (-4.6) | 154.0 (-11.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -19.4 (-6.4) | 152.8 (-9.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | ALA 105 – 82 SDST |
| Nov 13, 2021 | ALA 104 – 88 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#4) | 2.1 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#12) | 0.54 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#10) | 0.32 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.669 (#10) | 0.537 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 51.0 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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