Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -10000 SDST +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +23 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -17.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (+21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -15.8 (+7.2) | 157.5 (+29.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -17.3 (+5.7) | 160.3 (+26.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -15.8 (+7.2) | 159.4 (+27.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -16.7 (+6.3) | 157.4 (+29.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2022 | ALA 78 – 65 SDST |
| Nov 13, 2021 | ALA 104 – 88 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#11) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#11) | 0.43 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.80 (#11) | 0.88 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.695 (#4) | 0.515 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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