Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.0 Over |
| Money | ALA -600 SDST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +16 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -18.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+43.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -13.0 (+3.0) | 150.9 (+41.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -11.9 (+4.1) | 150.5 (+41.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | ALA 105 – 82 SDST |
| Dec 4, 2022 | ALA 78 – 65 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 18-0 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#39) | 0.8 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#42) | 0.34 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#57) | 0.48 (#82) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 45.0% |
| REB / G | 51.0 | 48.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 43.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 42.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.0% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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