Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -450 NAU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +19 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -16.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -13.4 (+5.6) | 148.6 (+8.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -14.2 (+4.8) | 150.1 (+6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -13.6 (+5.4) | 150.1 (+6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -10.8 (+8.2) | 147.9 (+9.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | PEPP 86 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 0-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#95) | -5.9 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#116) | -2.07 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#99) | -3.31 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#101) | 0.436 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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