Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -170 NAU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +10 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -5.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -3.4 (+6.6) | 141.8 (+20.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -3.6 (+6.4) | 142.6 (+19.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -3.4 (+6.6) | 142.3 (+19.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -3.0 (+7.0) | 141.0 (+21.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2022 | PEPP 88 – 69 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#237) | -4.8 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#294) | -0.22 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#304) | -0.67 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#297) | 0.480 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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