Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +188 BEL -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -1.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -2.3 (+12.3) | 139.3 (+24.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -2.8 (+12.8) | 139.3 (+24.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -2.3 (+12.3) | 139.5 (+24.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -2.1 (+12.1) | 140.6 (+23.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ILST 81 – 74 BEL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BEL 80 – 69 ILST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | BEL 76 – 63 ILST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ILST 81 – 78 BEL |
| Dec 5, 2024 | BEL 99 – 97 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#280) | 1.3 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#298) | 0.94 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#314) | 0.88 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#279) | 0.548 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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