Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -500 SMC +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +5 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -12.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -7.7 (-2.7) | 125.1 (-24.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -8.3 (-3.3) | 119.2 (-18.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.2 (-2.2) | 122.7 (-21.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.3 (-2.3) | 123.7 (-22.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 14-2 |
| Home | 16-2 | 16-2 |
| Away | 11-0 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 60.0 |
| Massey | 23.8 (#1) | 11.3 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#10) | 1.45 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#8) | 2.45 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#14) | 0.597 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.2% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.