Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Gersten Pavilion · December 4, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread NEV -2.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money LMU +110 / NEV -150
Model Predictions
Spread Total LMU win
Actual LMU +12 116 Won
Massey NEV -1.4 (+13.4)
Massey Totals 150.6 (-34.6)
Bradley-Terry 28%
Weighted B-T 18%
Baseline Plus ML LMU -0.5 (+11.5) 147.5 (-31.5) 59%
Baseline ML LMU -0.5 (+11.5) 145.5 (-29.5) 55%
Baseline Tuned ML LMU -1.1 (+10.9) 145.7 (-29.7) 50%
Efficiency Plus ML LMU -0.1 (+11.9) 144.1 (-28.1) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 8, 2024 LMU 6864 NEV
Dec 3, 2023 NEV 7359 LMU
Dec 19, 2021 NEV 6863 LMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LMU NEV
Overall 19-12 22-11
Conference 9-7 12-6
Home 13-3 14-1
Away 4-7 6-7
Neutral 2-2 2-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 74.5 71.8
Avg Pts Against 73.9 68.2
Massey 2.7 (#127) 9.9 (#41)
Bradley-Terry 0.64 (#126) 2.72 (#18)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.71 (#138) 3.55 (#23)
RPI 0.533 (#131) 0.679 (#7)
Shooting & Four Factors LMU NEV
FG% 45.1% 43.0%
3PT% 35.7% 35.5%
REB / G 34.6 35.4
OREB / G 9.5 8.1
AST / TO 0.96 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 50.4%
TOV% 17.3% 17.1%
ORB% 26.9% 25.0%
FT Rate 19.9% 38.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 41.9%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 18.6%
DRB% 75.8% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 27.0%

Game Analysis

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