Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
Gersten Pavilion · December 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread NEV -7.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money LMU +290 / NEV -380
Model Predictions
Spread Total LMU win
Actual LMU +4 132 Won
Massey NEV -11.2 (+15.2)
Massey Totals 133.5 (-1.5)
Bradley-Terry 26%
Weighted B-T 16%
Baseline Plus ML NEV -4.9 (+8.9) 136.1 (-4.1) 35%
Baseline ML NEV -6.1 (+10.1) 137.3 (-5.3) 29%
Baseline Tuned ML NEV -5.9 (+9.9) 136.7 (-4.7) 25%
Efficiency Plus ML NEV -7.8 (+11.8) 133.3 (-1.3) 27%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 3, 2023 NEV 7359 LMU
Dec 4, 2022 LMU 6452 NEV
Dec 19, 2021 NEV 6863 LMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LMU NEV
Overall 17-15 17-16
Conference 8-10 8-12
Home 11-6 11-6
Away 3-8 3-8
Neutral 3-1 3-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.3 72.3
Avg Pts Against 72.1 68.1
Massey -5.2 (#257) 10.6 (#53)
Bradley-Terry -0.24 (#193) 1.63 (#60)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.29 (#182) 2.30 (#69)
RPI 0.513 (#152) 0.629 (#28)
Shooting & Four Factors LMU NEV
FG% 38.8% 50.7%
3PT% 29.4% 42.8%
REB / G 36.0 35.0
OREB / G 9.0 9.1
AST / TO 1.14 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.1% 57.8%
TOV% 13.4% 17.5%
ORB% 22.5% 30.4%
FT Rate 16.0% 30.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.1% 45.6%
Opp TOV% 16.4% 17.6%
DRB% 72.6% 70.6%
Opp FT Rate 17.3% 26.7%

Game Analysis

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