Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -350 LMU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -17.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -14.7 (-0.7) | 149.2 (-17.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -14.9 (-0.9) | 144.7 (-12.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -14.9 (-0.9) | 144.9 (-12.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -12.2 (+1.8) | 149.1 (-17.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | LMU 68 – 64 NEV |
| Dec 4, 2022 | LMU 64 – 52 NEV |
| Dec 19, 2021 | NEV 68 – 63 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#18) | 1.5 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#15) | -0.64 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.06 (#8) | -0.81 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#29) | 0.431 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.93 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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