Betting Lines
| Spread | BRWN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | HART +500 BRWN -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +14 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | BRWN -12.3 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRWN -9.4 (-4.6) | 125.8 (-9.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRWN -10.6 (-3.4) | 129.4 (-13.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRWN -8.9 (-5.1) | 133.2 (-17.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRWN -8.2 (-5.8) | 128.3 (-12.3) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HART | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-23 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 7-7 |
| Home | 5-10 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -20.7 (#363) | -2.6 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#338) | -0.43 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.58 (#332) | -0.40 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.307 (#361) | 0.433 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HART | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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