Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | MRST +100 ME +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +1 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | ME -7.9 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ME -4.8 (+5.8) | 130.6 (-7.6) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ME -2.9 (+3.9) | 129.2 (-6.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -5.2 (+6.2) | 129.4 (-6.4) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ME -5.4 (+6.4) | 130.6 (-7.6) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#284) | 2.0 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#275) | 0.51 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#269) | 0.72 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#284) | 0.512 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 13.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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