Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -200 SAM +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +3 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -5.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -6.2 (-3.2) | 141.7 (+15.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -4.7 (-1.7) | 139.2 (+17.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -6.7 (-3.7) | 138.3 (+18.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -6.4 (-3.4) | 139.6 (+17.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#85) | 5.7 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#125) | -0.17 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#97) | -0.43 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#124) | 0.446 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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