Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Over |
| Money | UCI -400 FRES +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -22.9 (-36.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -17.4 (-31.4) | 132.3 (+13.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -13.1 (-27.1) | 131.9 (+14.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -16.8 (-30.8) | 133.0 (+13.0) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -17.6 (-31.6) | 132.6 (+13.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2021 | FRES 63 – 55 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#22) | -4.0 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#50) | -2.61 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#43) | -3.78 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#37) | 0.423 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 22.6% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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