Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +8 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -0.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 107.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -2.7 (+5.3) | 126.5 (-8.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -0.0 (+8.0) | 123.9 (-5.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -2.1 (+5.9) | 122.9 (-4.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -1.5 (+6.5) | 123.6 (-5.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2022 | FRES 80 – 66 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 9-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 61.4 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#103) | 9.8 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#87) | 2.06 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#82) | 2.65 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#89) | 0.662 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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