Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +150 MUR -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +7 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -1.8 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -2.4 (-4.6) | 141.6 (+5.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -3.2 (-3.8) | 140.7 (+6.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -1.6 (-5.4) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -2.1 (-4.9) | 140.0 (+7.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MUR 92 – 79 VAL |
| Dec 21, 2025 | MUR 85 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MUR 74 – 56 VAL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MUR 58 – 47 VAL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MUR 80 – 68 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#266) | 2.3 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#216) | 0.92 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#263) | 1.76 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#282) | 0.548 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.