Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -120 ETAM +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +9 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -3.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -1.3 (+7.7) | 140.7 (+18.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.1 (+4.9) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.7 (+5.3) | 142.1 (+16.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.3 (+5.7) | 142.4 (+16.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2023 | DEN 71 – 61 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#214) | 0.2 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#151) | 0.07 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#199) | -0.20 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#266) | 0.509 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.3% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 36.5% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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