Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -213 BOIS +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +15 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -2.6 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -1.5 (-13.5) | 138.5 (+18.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -0.2 (-14.8) | 133.9 (+23.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -2.1 (-12.9) | 136.2 (+20.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -2.5 (-12.5) | 137.8 (+19.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#92) | 7.1 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#122) | 0.72 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#113) | 1.63 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#172) | 0.516 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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