Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | NWST +240 USM -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +2 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | USM -3.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+34.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -3.3 (+5.3) | 134.8 (+31.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.5 (+2.5) | 136.9 (+29.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.5 (+3.5) | 135.0 (+31.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -2.3 (+4.3) | 133.5 (+32.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | USM 83 – 74 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 10-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#172) | 10.2 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#57) | 3.27 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#82) | 4.48 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#72) | 0.630 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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