Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | USM -1800 NWST +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | USM -12.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -9.9 (-0.9) | 144.2 (+12.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -10.4 (-1.4) | 146.2 (+10.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -10.9 (-1.9) | 145.1 (+11.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -10.4 (-1.4) | 144.8 (+12.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2022 | NWST 84 – 82 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#250) | -11.4 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#233) | -3.05 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#273) | -4.00 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#288) | 0.379 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 56.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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