Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -5000 STET +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +38 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -6.8 (+31.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -6.8 (+31.2) | 152.3 (-12.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -9.6 (+28.4) | 150.1 (-10.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -6.7 (+31.3) | 153.2 (-13.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.4 (+31.6) | 154.2 (-14.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | FLA 85 – 45 STET |
| Dec 6, 2020 | FLA 86 – 40 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#87) | 4.0 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#161) | 0.18 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#144) | 0.20 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#206) | 0.458 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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