Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -25.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | FLA -7000 STET +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +46 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -23.3 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -24.1 (+21.9) | 146.8 (-20.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -18.6 (+27.4) | 147.2 (-21.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -24.0 (+22.0) | 148.6 (-22.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | FLA 85 – 45 STET |
| Dec 4, 2022 | FLA 89 – 51 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#24) | -4.8 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#13) | -0.55 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#15) | -0.87 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.763 (#10) | 0.500 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 12.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 5.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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