Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -175 SPU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -9.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -3.5 (+8.5) | 129.5 (-7.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -3.0 (+9.0) | 127.3 (-5.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -3.4 (+8.6) | 130.3 (-8.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -3.7 (+8.3) | 130.7 (-8.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#229) | -7.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#287) | -1.16 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#284) | -1.54 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#312) | 0.398 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.