Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UK -400 MICH +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UK -9.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.9 (-0.9) | 150.7 (-8.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -4.9 (-0.9) | 149.0 (-7.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -6.0 (-2.0) | 146.5 (-4.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.5 (-1.5) | 147.3 (-5.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#26) | 3.4 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#114) | 1.44 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#111) | 2.89 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#168) | 0.551 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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