Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR -8000 TNTC +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -24.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -20.7 (-6.7) | 145.0 (+1.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -18.8 (-4.8) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -19.2 (-5.2) | 145.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -20.6 (-6.6) | 144.9 (+1.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#46) | -8.7 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#75) | -2.52 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#77) | -3.45 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#56) | 0.397 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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