Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–10 on winners spread MAE 9.6 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Creighton @ Texas +7.5 140.0 73% 67–72 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Radford +6.1 139.9 71% 78–80 ✓
Cornell @ Delaware +2.8 150.4 60% 74–67 ✗
Presbyterian @ Wofford +11.8 139.9 85% 63–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Peter's +0.2 138.2 52% 73–58 ✗
Fairfield @ Manhattan +1.3 132.5 55% 53–56 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky -9.1 146.5 22% 73–77 ✗
Robert Morris @ Wright State +9.0 145.3 85% 80–59 ✗
Oakland @ Cleveland State +13.0 143.7 87% 64–80 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.3 143.0 68% 75–66 ✗
Chicago State @ Bethune-Cookman +2.6 145.4 60% 73–86 ✓
Illinois State @ Murray State +10.3 140.7 86% 67–70 ✓
Valparaiso @ Belmont +7.4 144.3 81% 64–76 ✓
Denver @ Houston Christian -8.0 147.8 21% 93–83 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas State +9.9 128.3 83% 38–58 ✓
Milwaukee @ Green Bay -11.0 136.9 17% 81–67 ✓
Arizona @ Utah +3.3 156.5 55% 66–81 ✓
Texas State @ Lamar -2.3 138.5 38% 65–55 ✓
Arizona State @ Colorado +2.4 141.2 63% 60–59 ✗
Seton Hall @ Kansas +7.8 139.5 78% 65–91 ✓
Northwestern State @ Stephen F. Austin +6.3 139.7 72% 102–96 ✗
Pacific @ UC Davis +11.6 157.2 84% 74–72 ✗
Utah Tech @ Utah State +15.6 153.9 88% 81–86 ✓
Washington @ Oregon State -2.3 132.2 40% 65–66 ✗
UCLA @ Stanford -6.2 138.3 30% 80–66 ✓
Washington State @ Oregon +0.1 139.3 53% 60–74 ✓
Brown @ Bryant +13.3 148.2 86% 72–60 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.