Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -110 YSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -9.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -9.4 (+13.4) | 145.4 (+4.6) | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -7.3 (+11.3) | 143.8 (+6.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -9.1 (+13.1) | 146.5 (+3.5) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -8.2 (+12.2) | 147.0 (+3.0) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | YSU 64 – 58 NKU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NKU 94 – 79 YSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NKU 88 – 79 YSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | YSU 72 – 61 NKU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | YSU 82 – 52 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#305) | 8.4 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#307) | 1.72 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#298) | 2.11 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#300) | 0.579 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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