Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -188 NCCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -10.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -6.0 (-4.0) | 137.5 (+20.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -6.6 (-4.6) | 139.3 (+18.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -6.1 (-4.1) | 139.9 (+18.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -4.2 (-2.2) | 136.4 (+21.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2024 | RAD 70 – 67 NCCU |
| Dec 9, 2023 | RAD 82 – 74 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#74) | 1.9 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#239) | -0.02 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#271) | 0.01 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#231) | 0.505 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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