Betting Lines
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -1200 MVSU +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +20 | 96 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -16.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -11.3 (+8.7) | 123.6 (-27.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -13.0 (+7.0) | 123.3 (-27.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -9.9 (+10.1) | 128.3 (-32.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -10.8 (+9.2) | 126.2 (-30.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | ARST 82 – 77 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-8 | 4-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#247) | -14.3 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#309) | -2.05 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#309) | -3.59 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#292) | 0.435 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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