Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | MVSU +1200 ARST -2800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -12.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -8.6 (+3.6) | 147.8 (+11.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.6 (+3.6) | 142.9 (+16.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -8.8 (+3.8) | 144.4 (+14.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -8.3 (+3.3) | 145.3 (+13.7) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2022 | ARST 58 – 38 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-26 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-7 |
| Home | 0-11 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.0 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -23.3 (#359) | -5.7 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#334) | 0.62 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.44 (#330) | 0.50 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#290) | 0.504 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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