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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–16 on winners spread MAE 10.5 68 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Michigan @ Florida International +10.3 156.4 82% 80–68 ✗
Lehigh @ Maryland Eastern Shore +3.5 142.8 63% 60–64 ✓
Chattanooga @ Tennessee Tech -0.2 141.9 46% 81–74 ✓
Saint Francis @ Bucknell +9.8 143.2 80% 65–89 ✓
Akron @ Marshall +12.9 144.2 85% 57–68 ✓
Lafayette @ Drexel +7.0 127.0 70% 56–64 ✓
Elon @ High Point +13.9 148.7 87% 70–84 ✓
The Citadel @ Charleston Southern +5.6 141.7 71% 76–73 ✗
Sacred Heart @ New Hampshire +3.9 148.0 64% 66–61 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State +1.1 144.8 54% 73–75 ✓
South Alabama @ Florida Atlantic +8.7 140.2 79% 59–84 ✓
Coppin State @ UMBC -2.1 160.9 38% 82–109 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Western Carolina +4.2 138.6 65% 71–55 ✗
NJIT @ Cincinnati +8.5 138.3 77% 60–86 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Carolina A&T +0.3 137.5 49% 56–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ St. Bonaventure +4.0 132.4 64% 64–71 ✓
Richmond @ Toledo +3.2 147.6 61% 67–90 ✓
Hofstra @ George Mason +1.3 141.8 51% 77–81 ✓
Western Michigan @ Dayton +12.1 135.2 85% 47–67 ✓
Howard @ Yale +20.4 135.5 91% 40–86 ✓
Harvard @ Holy Cross -3.5 139.5 30% 72–38 ✓
Vanderbilt @ VCU +5.0 133.0 70% 65–70 ✓
Hampton @ Georgia +13.3 137.1 87% 54–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Hartford -6.1 150.6 25% 66–74 ✗
Purdue @ Florida State -10.5 137.8 18% 79–69 ✓
McNeese @ Tennessee +24.3 131.9 90% 40–76 ✓
Ohio State @ Duke +5.9 135.7 69% 72–81 ✓
Rutgers @ Miami +1.3 138.8 53% 61–68 ✓
Delaware State @ St. Francis Brooklyn +3.9 133.3 62% 73–81 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Coastal Carolina -2.4 132.8 38% 60–58 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley -7.0 156.3 27% 82–89 ✗
Jacksonville @ UAB +8.6 143.7 74% 61–80 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Georgia Southern -5.9 138.7 32% 70–53 ✓
North Dakota @ Iowa State +17.6 133.4 90% 44–63 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +0.4 129.7 45% 90–70 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Austin Peay -0.7 131.7 36% 75–74 ✓
Missouri State @ UIC +1.9 137.1 62% 66–51 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -4.5 123.7 32% 80–53 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +6.4 138.7 78% 53–68 ✓
North Alabama @ Memphis +17.3 146.1 89% 68–87 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Rice -2.6 152.1 37% 62–70 ✗
Monmouth @ Rider +10.5 143.3 83% 62–88 ✓
SMU @ Texas A&M +8.9 142.8 80% 64–83 ✓
Florida A&M @ Florida +17.5 142.8 90% 62–102 ✓
Georgetown @ Texas Tech +14.9 138.3 87% 65–79 ✓
Providence @ TCU +9.2 142.1 80% 62–75 ✓
Maine @ Fordham +5.7 138.3 73% 67–72 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois -4.5 145.3 33% 78–86 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Pennsylvania +10.1 147.8 81% 85–80 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Xavier +11.6 154.0 83% 63–95 ✓
Montana State @ Southern Utah +5.7 151.0 73% 86–83 ✗
Tennessee State @ Saint Louis +9.3 150.4 81% 63–80 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Colorado State +8.1 144.3 75% 71–87 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Air Force +5.2 135.0 65% 53–81 ✓
UTEP @ New Mexico State +4.5 143.6 65% 70–95 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Loyola Chicago +3.8 142.0 64% 70–85 ✓
Samford @ DePaul -0.3 143.0 45% 98–103 ✗
South Carolina @ George Washington +9.2 137.0 81% 55–79 ✓
Boston College @ Nebraska +6.3 127.8 71% 67–88 ✓
North Carolina @ Indiana +13.2 155.6 85% 65–77 ✓
Michigan State @ Notre Dame +2.2 144.0 56% 52–70 ✓
Little Rock @ San Francisco +12.5 152.0 87% 68–90 ✓
UC Riverside @ California Baptist +3.4 136.9 57% 60–65 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Seattle U +14.3 149.3 88% 62–69 ✓
New Mexico @ Saint Mary's +8.2 137.7 73% 69–65 ✗
USC @ California -3.6 130.4 34% 66–51 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Hawai'i +11.8 136.1 84% 53–51 ✗
Oklahoma State @ UConn +16.6 144.6 88% 64–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.