Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -250 JOES +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +5 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -12.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -9.2 (-14.2) | 145.5 (+19.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -6.6 (-11.6) | 144.9 (+20.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -10.1 (-15.1) | 147.8 (+17.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -9.7 (-14.7) | 148.2 (+16.8) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | PENN 83 – 74 JOES |
| Nov 16, 2024 | JOES 86 – 69 PENN |
| Nov 10, 2023 | JOES 69 – 61 PENN |
| Dec 9, 2021 | JOES 78 – 71 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#181) | -6.0 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#116) | -2.37 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#113) | -3.76 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#139) | 0.415 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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