Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | PENN +210 JOES -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -7.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -3.8 (+5.2) | 148.8 (+8.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.9 (+9.9) | 147.8 (+9.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -3.0 (+6.0) | 144.0 (+13.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -4.0 (+5.0) | 145.8 (+11.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | JOES 86 – 69 PENN |
| Nov 10, 2023 | JOES 69 – 61 PENN |
| Dec 1, 2022 | JOES 85 – 80 PENN |
| Dec 9, 2021 | JOES 78 – 71 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#299) | -8.3 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#283) | 0.09 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#274) | 0.08 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.226 (#359) | 0.463 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 36.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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