Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PENN +250 JOES -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +17 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -7.6 (-24.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -1.9 (-18.9) | 141.7 (+13.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -4.3 (-21.3) | 139.0 (+16.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -4.9 (-21.9) | 138.5 (+16.5) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -4.5 (-21.5) | 139.1 (+15.9) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | PENN 83 – 74 JOES |
| Nov 10, 2023 | JOES 69 – 61 PENN |
| Dec 1, 2022 | JOES 85 – 80 PENN |
| Dec 9, 2021 | JOES 78 – 71 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-8 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#303) | -5.8 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#183) | -0.72 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#229) | -1.03 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#314) | 0.457 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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