Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -7.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -4.2 (+2.8) | 144.6 (+4.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -5.1 (+1.9) | 145.1 (+3.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -5.4 (+1.6) | 145.0 (+4.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -5.6 (+1.4) | 145.1 (+3.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | PENN 83 – 74 JOES |
| Nov 16, 2024 | JOES 86 – 69 PENN |
| Nov 10, 2023 | JOES 69 – 61 PENN |
| Dec 1, 2022 | JOES 85 – 80 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#186) | -2.7 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#207) | -0.35 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#221) | -0.41 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#194) | 0.499 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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