Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -125 UTEP +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +25 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -6.4 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -5.1 (+19.9) | 145.7 (+19.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -5.5 (+19.5) | 143.2 (+21.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -4.5 (+20.5) | 143.6 (+21.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -3.8 (+21.2) | 144.2 (+20.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NMSU 67 – 63 UTEP |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UTEP 91 – 88 NMSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UTEP 66 – 63 NMSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NMSU 85 – 57 UTEP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UTEP 74 – 49 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 7-13 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#115) | 3.1 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#148) | 2.25 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#120) | 3.69 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#102) | 0.647 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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