Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UTEP +110 NMSU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +3 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -3.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+42.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -1.7 (+4.7) | 135.5 (+43.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -2.7 (+5.7) | 133.4 (+45.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.0 (+5.0) | 132.8 (+46.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.0 (+5.0) | 133.8 (+45.2) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NMSU 67 – 63 UTEP |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UTEP 66 – 63 NMSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NMSU 85 – 57 UTEP |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UTEP 74 – 49 NMSU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | NMSU 63 – 53 UTEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#259) | 0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#293) | -0.50 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#278) | -0.34 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#269) | 0.497 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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