Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -21.8 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -12.2 (+2.2) | 138.1 (+9.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.2 (+1.2) | 140.9 (+7.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -10.5 (+0.5) | 137.8 (+10.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -13.0 (+3.0) | 140.1 (+7.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2021 | PUR 93 – 65 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 5-11 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#318) | 19.6 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#331) | 4.34 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#313) | 6.94 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#331) | 0.782 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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