Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +28 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -16.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -14.8 (+13.2) | 147.6 (+10.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -13.2 (+14.8) | 146.7 (+11.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -14.7 (+13.3) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -14.3 (+13.7) | 148.7 (+9.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2022 | PUR 79 – 69 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#5) | 9.4 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#6) | 1.90 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.91 (#4) | 2.65 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#64) | 0.644 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 43.5% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 26.8% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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