Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HC +400 HARV -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +34 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -2.1 (-31.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -4.6 (-29.4) | 137.9 (-27.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -3.5 (-30.5) | 139.5 (-29.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -5.4 (-28.6) | 140.5 (-30.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -5.7 (-28.3) | 140.2 (-30.2) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | HARV 81 – 53 HC |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HC 68 – 67 HARV |
| Dec 21, 2023 | HARV 74 – 72 HC |
| Dec 19, 2021 | HARV 62 – 54 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#336) | -2.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.41 (#351) | 0.85 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.72 (#350) | 0.69 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#297) | 0.534 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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