Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | HARV -600 HC +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +28 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -9.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -6.6 (+21.4) | 132.3 (+1.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -6.0 (+22.0) | 134.4 (-0.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -6.4 (+21.6) | 134.4 (-0.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -6.0 (+22.0) | 134.9 (-0.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | HC 68 – 67 HARV |
| Dec 21, 2023 | HARV 74 – 72 HC |
| Dec 1, 2022 | HARV 72 – 38 HC |
| Dec 19, 2021 | HARV 62 – 54 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#215) | -8.4 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#263) | -1.30 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#266) | -2.38 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#261) | 0.458 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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