Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | HC +130 HARV -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | HC -6.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -2.5 (-1.5) | 138.9 (-3.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -4.4 (-3.4) | 138.4 (-3.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -5.0 (-4.0) | 136.9 (-1.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -5.5 (-4.5) | 138.3 (-3.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | HARV 81 – 53 HC |
| Dec 21, 2023 | HARV 74 – 72 HC |
| Dec 1, 2022 | HARV 72 – 38 HC |
| Dec 19, 2021 | HARV 62 – 54 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#272) | -6.4 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#137) | -1.61 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#159) | -2.00 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#86) | 0.398 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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